Grand National 2010
I’ve never been a particularly big gambler (unlike aliholli who recently withdrew some winnings from her Betfair account to purchase a shiny new netbook*), but I’ve always had a tenner on the Grand National, Britain’s most valuable National Hunt race. This started in 2005 when, knowing nothing other than the fact that Ruby Walsh was “a bit good”, I staked £10 on Hedgehunter who promptly romped home to victory.
Since then, having picked up some of my parents’ enthusiasm for racing, I’ve learnt a lot more about it and can actually offer a reasonably informed opinion of who’s got a chance of winning. On the last couple of occasions I’ve been tempted to increase my yearly stake, but I think there are far better uses of my money than to hand it over to the bookmakers, so £10 it is.
On top of that, the National really is a lottery. It’s a four and a half mile marathon of a handicap run over huge fences and it has again attracted an excellent field, as has been the trend in recent years. Also, with the sheer number of fallers, every horse needs a bit of luck to keep itself out of trouble if it is to have a clear round - there are countless examples of horses travelling well and having been brought down in the past (see Clan Royal’s unfortunate fate in 2005). Then there’s the fact that there are 40 horses taking part, and it’s difficult to know how horses will respond if they’ve only run in smaller fields in the past. You could spend all day thinking about the National, studying form and coming up with reasons that a certain horse might win, but ultimately it’s always going to be hugely difficult to predict the winner. As Greg Wood said in the Guardian’s excellent horse racing section this week:
So the lesson to take from the 2009 National may be that after 20 years of change to the structure of the course and, more significantly, the shape of the race itself, the Grand National is finally the “anything can win” event that the British public had always, rather mistakenly, assumed it to be.
Without further ado, here are my four selections for this year’s National (all each-way):
Black Apalachi (14/1) and Vic Venturi (20/1)
The Dessie Hughes-trained pair are both Becher Chase winners and stand excellent chances if they can jump a clear round. Black Apalachi looked excellent until unseating its jockey at Becher’s Brook last year and probably has the stronger form of the two, but they’re both well worth an each-way punt.
Character Building (18/1)
A longstanding opinion held between myself and my dad about the nature of batting in cricket to be “character building” has led this to be a favourite horse of mine. Injuries in the last two years have prevented me from being able to back it, but this year I’ve jumped at the chance. It has good form and has been backed from 28/1 down to 18/1 so some people obviously agree with me. In the past there have been many great National stories, and there would be three great stories if Character Building were to win. Firstly, Nina Carberry would be the first female jockey to win the National. Secondly, it would be the first grey winner for nearly 50 years. And thirdly, its new owner Patricia Thompson, who bought the horse earlier this week, bought Party Politics back in 1992 (also an election year!) a week before the race and it went on to win.
Comply or Die (20/1)
The winner in 2008 and runner-up last year, it’s been there done that and has had its season geared towards this race. Probably a bit too much of an ask for it to win for a second time, but it should be there or there abouts and is a big enough price (for the time being) to be worth an each-way bet.
But feel free to ignore me of course; it’s a lottery! :)
Interesting facts for the uninitiated:
- No seven year old has won since 1940. (Strike them off your list immediately and wait for them to come back a year older and a year wiser.)
- The last time a horse won carrying more than 11st 1lb was in 1983. Carrying large weights around the National course is a tough ask, particularly on softer ground (it is likely to be good to soft this year). If you’re carrying 11st 4lb (ish) or more, there is likely to be something further down the weights to beat you. Having said that, the reason the top weights carry more is because they are the best horses, so they’re well worth backing each-way.
- Fourteen-time champion jockey AP McCoy has tried fourteen times, but has never won this race.
Good luck to one and all, and most importantly, enjoy the race!
* To be fair, she’s not a particularly big gambler, she just seems to be very good!
